Data‐driven bioregionalization: A seascape‐scale study of macrobenthic communities in the Eurasian Arctic

Aim We conduct the first model-based assessment of biogeographical subdivision Eurasian Arctic seas to (1) delineate spatial distribution and boundaries macrobenthic communities on a seascape level; (2) assess significance environmental drivers community structures; (3) compare our modelling results historical classifications; (4) couple model climate scenarios changes project potential shifts in composition by 2100. Location seas, particular Barents, Kara Laptev Seas. Taxon 169 species fauna; most common taxa are Polychaeta (85 species), Malacostraca (30 Bivalvia (26 species) Gastropoda (10 species). Methods employed Region Common Profile (RCP) approach bioregionalization patterns seafloor communities. The RCP allows identification seascape-scale simultaneously considering biotic data within one step. Results Four RCPs were identified Arctic. showed that water depth, sea-ice cover, bottom-water temperature salinity, proportion fine sediments, particulate organic carbon (POC) depth euphotic zone among important driving variables macrobenthos projections, driven climate-change scenarios, suggested general north-eastward shift over 21st century, mainly correlated with retreating increasing sea-bottom temperature. Main conclusions largely match previously reported large-scale seas. spatio-temporal dynamics agreement local long-term observation resilience/vulnerability studied region. representation ecoregions biotas probabilistic form, together quantitative climate-driven changes, will help adequately consider biodiversity development science-based conservation measures.